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Are You Misjudging Risk?

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In the book Freakonomics, the author points out that we often misjudge risk—not because we lack information, but because our emotions and personal experiences cloud our thinking. Fear can overtake logic.

The same is true when it comes to investing. Market volatility can feel unsettling, making it seem like standing still is the most dangerous move. But when we zoom out and look at history, we see a different story—just like Dylan shared in last week’s video:

  • On average, the market experiences a 14% drop each year.

  • As of today, April 4th, the S&P 500 is down about 8% for the year—with 5% of that decline happening just yesterday, April 3rd.

 

Despite the noise, market cycles remain consistent:

  • It may feel different this time, but it isn’t.

  • The headlines may change, but history repeats itself.

 

📺 Catch Dylan’s video here if you missed it.

🎥 Click the video above to watch this week’s message.

 

As always, if you have questions or want to talk through your investment strategy, we’re here to help.

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Why Market Dips Don’t Mean Disaster

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With all the recent market ups and downs, it’s easy to feel uneasy. But before you let the headlines stress you out, let’s put things into perspective.

In this video, we break down why market volatility is normal and why staying invested through the dips is key to long-term success. We’ll walk through a powerful chart that reveals a surprising truth:

📊 Even when the market dropped significantly, it still finished strong most of the time.
📊 Over the last 45 years, despite average intra-year drops of 14%+, the S&P 500 ended positive 3 out of 4 times!

The key takeaways?
✅ Volatility is normal.
✅ Dips are temporary.
✅ Sticking to your plan pays off.

🎥 Watch now & if you have concerns about your investments, we’re here to help—just reach out!

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Are “Rules of Thumb” worth following?

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In today’s video, we’re revisiting the 4% rule for retirement—a classic rule of thumb that’s making a comeback! The 4% rule suggests that you can safely withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually without depleting your nest egg. But is it truly a one-size-fits-all approach? Factors like inflation, risk tolerance, investment performance, and spending behaviors all play a role in determining whether this strategy works for your unique circumstances.

👉 Click play to learn how the 4% rule fits into modern retirement planning and how to tailor it to your financial goals!

This is the article I reference in the video: The 4% Rule for Retirement Is Back

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Have we given you enough confidence in your financial future?

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In this video, I address a common question I get asked: “What if this happens?”—whether it’s about market changes, elections, or unexpected shifts. These “what if” questions often stem from a place of uncertainty and anxiety about the future.  Here at Ross financial it is our hope that you feel like we have put your mind at ease about your financial future.  Here is our challenge for you: instead of asking, “What if this happens?” try shifting your perspective to, “Even though this is happening we’re going to be okay.”  If you don’t feel like you have the peace of mind that you need, please reach out to us so we can install that piece of mind that you deserve as clients of ours.

A strong financial foundation allows us to handle change with confidence. So, let’s start reframing our thinking to focus on resilience and security, no matter what the future holds.

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Iron Sharpens Iron

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In today’s video of Matt’s Minutes, Matt is taking a break from his usual market-related content and sharing some self-improvement videos over the next few weeks. Today he’s sharing a concept we all know well: Iron sharpens iron. Being part of the Chairman’s Council at Raymond James, which is the top 100 financial planners in the country, he was invited to an exclusive conference in New York City last week. The things that he learned and the people he met made the trip absolutely priceless. Click on the video above to watch the full video

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This picture speaks volumes

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Take a look at the picture we show in the video.  I think it’s probably the most simple visual of what it looks like for people who choose the easy road versus the hard road, and what their potential experience looks like once they’ve made that choice.   

Please share this message with those that you care about.

“Truly successful decision-making relies on a balance between deliberate and instinctive thinking.”– Malcolm Gladwell

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Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Constellation Wealth Services is not a registered broker dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

2025 Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Advisors. As a chairman’s council member, I am licensed to promote Forbes|SHOOK awards published in 2025. The Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Advisors 2025 ranking, developed by SHOOK Research, is based on an algorithm of qualitative criteria, mostly gained through telephone and in person due diligence interviews, and quantitative data. This ranking is based upon the period from 6/30/2023 to 6/30/2024 and was released on 4/8/2025. Those advisors that are considered have a minimum of seven years of experience, and the algorithm weighs factors like revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, industry experience and those that encompass best practices in their practices and approach to working with clients. Portfolio performance is not a criteria due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. Out of approximately 48,944 nominations, roughly 9,722 advisors received theaward. This ranking is not indicative of an advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors or RIA firms pay a fee in exchange for thisaward/rating. Compensation provided for using the rating. Raymond James is not affiliated with Forbes or Shook Research, LLC. Please visit https://www.forbes.com/best-in-state-wealth-advisors/ for more info.

Matthew Ross has been named 2024 Forbes Best-In-State Wealth Advisors, developed by Shook Research, is based on the period from 6/30/2022 to 6/30/2023 and was released on 4/3/2024. 42,108 nominations were received, and 8,500 advisors won. Neither Raymond James nor any of its advisors pay a fee in exchange for this award. More: https://bit.ly/43DMgjX. Please see https://www.forbes.com/best-in-state-wealth-advisors for more info.

The 2023 AdvisorHub 200 Fast Growing Advisors to Watch ranking is based on an algorithm of criteria, focused on three key areas: Quality of Practice, Year-Over-Year Growth, and Professionalism & Character. The rankings weigh the scores in Quality and Growth more heavily than other areas. Time period upon which the rating is based is from 1/1/2021 to 12/31/2022 and was released on 6/20/2023. Advisors considered have a minimum of seven years’ experience, a clean regulatory record with 2 or fewer complaints and no significant judgements, must have been with their current firm for at least two years and in good standing, and have at least $100 million in assets under management. Out of 1,246 total nominations received, 200 advisors received the award. This ranking is not based in any way on the individual’s abilities regarding providing investment advice or management. This ranking is not indicative of advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors or RIA firms pay a fee in exchange for this award/rating. Raymond James is not affiliated with AdvisorHub.

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